Voters will judge Trump on the economy - how is it doing?

Donald Trump once predicted the US-Israeli war in Iran would last no longer than six weeks. It has now entered its third month. The conflict has caused a global energy shock on a par with the oil crises of the 1970s, driving up prices of everything from fuel to groceries. Despite piling additional pressure on already hard-pressed Americans, the latest GDP figures out this week showed the economy motoring along in the first three months of 2026. As America's first quarter growth figures offered a boost, the BBC examines how major US economic indicators are looking for the president, with midterm elections looming in November and no sign of the ongoing war coming to an end. In the run-up to the midterms, Trump will use Thursday's growth figures to paint his economic approach as the right one. The economy grew by 2% on an annualised basis in the first quarter of 2026, a significant boost after a slowdown at the end of 2025, official statistics showed. That came despite pressure on consumers from US tariffs, which led to higher prices for American shoppers, and the fresh energy shock sparked by the Iran war. Economists said the hit to consumers was not as bad as feared, with consumption growing by 1.6% on an annualised basis. But they also attributed the overall increase in growth to the huge sums being spent by tech giants investing in the rollout of artificial intelligence (AI). James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said that as consumer spending cools,